Research recently predicts the imminent arrival of intense solar storms similar to those of the 1950s.
These reports are already confirmed: solar minimum has occurred, sunspots have disappeared, the sun is calm and no eruptions are observed. So it's the calm before the storm. A team of scientists has announced that intense solar storms are on the way - most pronounced during solar minimum, similar to the 1950s.
The forecast was made by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). According to her, the next solar cycle will be 30-50% more intense than the previous one. If the prediction is confirmed, solar activity in the coming years may reach the level of the all-time high of 1958, which was the Great Solar Maximum.
At the time when Sputnik was launched in October 1957 and America's Explorer 1 in January 1958, it was impossible to predict whether solar storms would affect cell phone signals. Even then, however, the northern lights were also seen in Mexico.
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What could an intense solar storm cause?
Dnes by podobne silné maximum mohlo výrazne ovplyvniť mobilné telefóny, GPS zariadenia, klimatologické satelity a ďalšie moderné technológie. Predpoveď Dikpatiho je bezprecedentná: takmer dve storočia From objavenia 11-ročného slnečného cyklu vedci nedokázali presne predpovedať intenzitu budúcich maxim, ktoré môžu byť buď porovnateľné s rokom 1958, alebo takmer nepostrehnuteľné ako v roku 1805.
What controls the sunspot cycle?
The key to solving the mystery, Dikpati explains, came several years earlier. It is the conveyor belt of the Sun. We have something similar on Earth: the great ocean conveyor belt made famous by the movie "The Day After." This system draws water and heat from the ocean. Just like in the movie, the Sun's conveyor belt stops and this causes chaos in the Earth's climate. The conveyor belt of the Sun is not made of water, but of gas that conducts electricity. This gas flows through an internal winding that leads from the solar equator to the poles and back. And just as the great ocean conveyor belt controls the climate on Earth, the solar belt controls the climate of our star. Specifically, it controls the sunspot cycle.
What are sunspots?
Solar expert David Hathaway, a physicist at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC), explains it this way: the first thing he mentions is the question "what exactly are sunspots?" – they are only products of magnetism, created by the internal dynamo of the Sun.
A typical sunspot lasts a few days, barely a week. It soon weakens and disintegrates, leaving behind "weak magnetic fields". This is a conveyor belt. "The upper part of the conveyor belt cleans the surface of the Sun and removes the magnetic fields of sunspot remnants. The remnants (of sunspots) are dragged towards the poles and to a depth of 200,000 km, where the magnetic dynamo of the Sun can amplify them. Then these remnants (magnetized) become active again, get charged and rise to the surface full of life."
Simply put – the new sunspots! This process is very slow. "It takes almost 40 years for a belt to complete a rotation," Hathaway says. The speed changes "from a slow 50-year rhythm to a fast 30-year rhythm." When the belt "accelerates", it means that many remnant magnetic fields are being removed and the next solar cycle will be more intense.
The difficulty of forecasting solar activity
Toto je základ slnečných klimatologických predpovedí: „Pás sa zrýchlil v cykle 1986 až 1996,“ hovorí Hathaway, „magnetické polia, z ktorých vtedy zostali pozostatky, sa teraz znovu objavia ako veľké slnečné škvrny v období 2010 až 2021.“ Ako väčšina odborníkov vo svojom odbore, Hathaway dôveruje teórii dopravného pásu a súhlasí s Dikpatim, podľa ktorého bude nasledujúce slnečné maximum veľmi intenzívne.
However, they disagree on one point. Dikpati's prediction locates the maximum in 2012, Hathaway thinks it will occur earlier, perhaps in 2010 or 2011. "History shows that large sunspot cycles intensify faster than small sunspot cycles," he says. "I hope to see the first specks of the next cycle in late 2006 or 2007, and the peak will come around 2010 or 2011."
Who is right?
Only time will tell. But anyway, the storm is coming.
From: Dr. Tony Phillips
Please note that this is a free translation, and therefore I apologize for any shortcomings in the translation.
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